look at Italy, which has been both the scene of revolutionary
changes and the agent that set them in motion, you’ll see it’s
a land that has neither banks nor dykes to protect it. Had the
country been properly protected, like Germany, Spain and
France, either the flood wouldn’t have had such drastic effects
or it wouldn’t have happened at all.
I think that is all that need be said in general terms about
how to deal with the problem of luck.
Going into detail, though, we’ve all seen how a ruler may
be doing well one day and then lose power the next without
any apparent change in his character or qualities. I believe
this is mostly due to the attitude I mentioned above: that is,
the ruler trusts entirely to luck and collapses when it changes.
I’m also convinced that the successful ruler is the one who
adapts to changing times; while the leader who fails does so
because his approach is out of step with circumstances.
All men want glory and wealth, but they set out to achieve
those goals in different ways. Some are cautious, others impul-
sive; some use violence, others finesse; some are patient, others
quite the opposite. And all these different approaches can be
successful. It’s also true that two men can both be cautious
but with different results: one is successful and the other fails.
Or again you see two men being equally successful but with
different approaches, one cautious, the other impulsive. This
depends entirely on whether their approach suits the circum-
stances, which in turn is why, as I said, two men with different
approaches may both succeed while, of two with the same
approach, one may succeed and the other not.
This explains why people’s fortunes go up and down. If
someone is behaving cautiously and patiently and the times
and circumstances are such that the approach works, he’ll be
successful. But if times and circumstances change, everything
goes wrong for him, because he hasn’t changed his approach
to match. You won’t find anyone shrewd enough to adapt his
character like this, in part because you can’t alter your natural